Hello Vietnam!

6 04 2007

I depart on a new adventure for Vietnam, the land where i hear 60% are below 24 years old which means I should be considered a middle-aged expat when I arrive. Lets hope the kids in Ho Chi Minh City will be kind to the elderly. :D

If all things work out, I will be helping a friend in a venture cap firm that is working on a new fund for digital media investments. It will be interesting to cross the fence and look through the lens from different perspectives on how startups are funded within the trenches of the VCs. I will be entering this short stint with no high expectations but only to get some good exposure of the Vietnamese startup scene plus some cheap beer in an exotic land 2 hours away from Singapore.

Having never been to Vietnam, I have miraculously worked closely with quite a number of Vietnamese in my course of work in the SF Bay Area. I also hear much of Vietnam’s investment potential and booming economy but this being an Easter Friday holiday, I shouldn’t bore with your dry economics… WHO also seems to be giving Vietnam pressure for their bird flu cases which brings me to thank concerned friends and family who had prepared me with their doomsday prophecies..  Of course, Russell Peters also provide more comedic views of the place which had really psyched me about visiting this place some time back, such as how motorbikes are used as vans there..

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Boy, I can’t wait.. ;)



iPhone vs The Rest

11 01 2007

Steve Jobs predicted that the iPhone will ensnare about 1% of the global phone market, which was about 1 billion last year. So he expects to sell about 10M phones, probably in 2008 when the iPhone is available worldwide.

I have been wondering about how to value the stock since I watched the iPhone keynote address (Sidenote: which might turn out to be as revolutionary as the first imac or iPod keynote). I found this nice comparison chart from Seekingalpha:

Some key observations, based on the criteria of comparison in this chart:

1. Expect Cingular to announce a $100-$200 price subsidy. The iPhone is way overpriced now compared to the rest in terms of retail price and we have yet to know how Cingular intends to package this product to the market.

2. Enterprise email services is a glaring weak point of the iPhone. All the other smart phones are compatible with services such as Intellisync, Visio, Blackberry, Visto, MS Exchange. This chart lists iPhone as having none. We shall await for more confirmation of this from Apple as the launch date nears. This point is crucial for the enterprise market to consider the iPhone as a replacement product since the price point may be too high for consumers and college students.

There is also more on the smartphone market from this BusinessWeek report on the Future of Apple.

Market research firm M:Metrics estimates that fewer than 6.2 million smartphones were in use in the U.S. as of the end of November. Of those, 2 million were based on Microsoft (MSFT) software, 1.76 million were BlackBerries, 1.72 million were Palm devices, and some 669,000 ran the Symbian operating system from London-based Symbian Limited, which is jointly owned by several companies, including Nokia, Ericsson (ERIC), Siemens (SI), and Panasonic (MC).

More analysis on the iPhone launch and the AAPL stock can be found here.



Some thoughts on MDA IDM Jamboree

6 01 2007

Update 2: The post-event analysis is up and readable here.

Update: I found Professor Ramesh Jain from UC Irvine, CA, who might be attending this event too as a presenter of his startup, Event Web. Check out Ramesh Jain’s blog. More on his startup idea here (no website available, it seems). More on the man here.

idmlogothumbnail.JPGThis event, held Jan 10, will launch an initiative to launch Web 3.0 in Singapore. Frankly, I don;t know how we skipped the evolution cycle because Web 2.0 did not even start in Singapore’s IT and media industries. More on this event at SGEntrepreneurs. I cannot find the actual event site. Looks like this Web3.0 event launch is neither search optimized nor browsable on the website of MDA, the lead agency spearheading this effort. tsk tsk..

And I left a comment on the SGE site which i will reproduce here, in an edited version. As a disclaimer, I am not yet an active practitioner nor entrepreneur in the web industry. But I think I have the right to at least air my opinion on this issue. I am passionate about the Web industry and bullish about the internet medium on business and society and am willing to support any initiative that will propagate its growth. I take issue with the manner of the latest launch by MDA and its affiliated agencies and just prefer to make my thoughts heard in the hope that it lands in the right hands/ ears and we do this initiative right.

“there’s no such thing called “web 3.0″ yet. i am attending this event to see just how the govt defines web 2.0 before we attempt to jump the whole world and create this fictitious web 3.0. Even the website of the event is a joke. its so web 1.0 and they still use antiquated terms of no relevance to the subject matter.

This event almost looks like another initiative by some harried civil servant who pulled together a bunch of kakis from the other ministries to show the whole world they are all collectively putting effort in doing something that meets their KPI/ ROI/ whatever. Yes, a bureaucratic kneejerk reaction is what this looks like.

I rant alot here, i know, but the way the government is trying to launch this fund shows they are simply out of touch in trying to understand what really matters in trying to spur innovation here. those who will create any web3.0 already exist. And i think none of these people are inspired enough by the promise of what this web 3.0 can do to them. I might be jumping the gun before i even attend this event but i will seek to offer some suggestions to improve as as an event precursor.

For starters, dun get government to push it. Get industry leaders, academics, foreign thought leaders from technological hubs in israel, silicon valley to speak at fund launches like this. If the govt has 500 million to spend eventually, they can spend a few million trying to do this right for once by flying the right people down to Singapore to launch this. Get any warm body the innovators, the engineers, the entrepreneurs, will respect, NOT govt officials. Unless this is an internal fund for only civil servants to create startups, no one in the audience is going to listen to some civil servants step up that podium and subsequently gladly oblige to follow the commands. Singapore’s culture may be paternalistic but all kids grow up eventually.

I don;t know whether this fund’s creators actually pondered the root to the lack of innovation here which is why we have no notable web 2.0 enterprises of note. The real problem is the engineers and comp science students in singapore flocking to the more financially stable industries of Finance and Banking. Without real efforts put into university admin and policies that effectively overcome the sociological and psychological bias of our nation’s brightest engineers against non-financial careers, this initiative is dead in the water before it starts. This is the real brain drain a fictional Web 3.0 industry in Singapore will face. And this is a chronic cancer no cure seems imminent at present. We need to make this industry more glamorous and credible. Which does not mean more lame advertising campaigns depicting the computing industry as sexy or anything. It means putting more money into the promising startups we already have, helping them hire good talent from local and especially overseas etc…

More importantly, we need to inspire and fertilize the ground which grows those entrepreneurs, ie. the schools. We need to find what ever minor successes we have in the current generation of web entrepreneurs we have in Singapore and cultivate them as role models through the media. Talk about their struggles, their successes and the route they took to success so others can take note and support can be rallied from society and the industry. Influencing the public is key here anda successful push in the Web industry will help greatly in expanding career options to students in the educational institutions in polys ITEs, and the unis.

logo.gifTHe only web “successes” we have so far is? I might be ignorant but only HArdwarezone.com came to mind and they were bought for a paltry SG$7 million. how is that going to inspire any potential local web3.0 entrepreneur to start up? I think this is a question begging to be asked. 500 million from the govt coffers might be huge, but it will not displace the importance nor influence of the VC industry which will be begging to ask whether any future valuations of startups in this region deserve funding after the HWZ precedent.”

Follow-up: For those frustrated with the development of Singapore’s web industry, help it grow at the BarCamp SG event on Jan 20.



Zero to A Billion Bucks: How They Did It.

28 04 2006

Thomson found that all Blueprint companies grew exponentially after reaching a threshold of around $50 million in annual revenues. Then their sales soared in a steep curve, reaching $1 billion in an average of four years (eBay (Research), Google (Research)), six years (Starbucks (Research)), or 12 years (Dreyer's Ice Cream, Adobe). A majority of Blueprint companies reached the billion-dollar mark in four or six years after hitting $50 million. And unlike the VC-fueled dot-bombs of the late 1990s, most Blueprint companies were profitable from an early stage. They also rewarded their shareholders: At the end of 2005, 60 of the Nasdaq 100 companies were Blueprint firms.

This book talks about how to identify so-called "Blueprint" companies in today's world based on his empirical study of "7,454 U.S.-based corporations that went public after 1980" and interviews with executives at these billion-dollar enterprises.

Quick Stock Tips for the Near Future from the book:

  • in leisure products
  • nursing homes for aging boomers
  • energy, natural resources,
  • specialty chemicals
  • semiconductors for consumer gadgets
  • Our increasingly harried society is also likely to embrace any time-saving product or service.

Based on this article. Check out the website for the book here. Order from Amazon here. I know how this looks, but I am not advertising, just sharing. =)



Web-Traffic Stock Exchange

13 02 2006

This is damn addictive! (only for those Web 2.0 trackers) Alexadex is an online stock exchange for listing the stocks of all web companies. The “stock” price fluctuates up and down based on their latest Alexa traffic rankings. You are given $10,000 to begin trading and forming your own Web-stock portfolio. I just started using the app and already found it immensely fun and wanted to blog about it, ahha… Its a great app for those who are into both investing and tracking internet news. I am curious as to what revenue model Alexadex might have, which appears to be none so far except for Adsense, and i am reckoning its just another of those hype-based, fad-reliant cool web service. Was recommended to this site by Techcrunch.

Click on the screenshot below if you want to try it out as well. I get an additional $1,000 for every referral! ;)



Great Article on India vs China

11 02 2006

The tortoise vs the hare:

Here’s my favourite line that probably summed it up:

that China’s growth is coming via flashy financing (foreign direct investment, the equivalent of VC financing at a startup) while India’s is coming through organic, sustainable growth (the equivalent of revenues).

Click here for link.

Technorati tag: India, China, venture capital, Asia, economic growth





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